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DeSart model: Trump in Connecticut trails by a clear margin


The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model predicts that Clinton will collect 56.6% of the two-party vote share in Connecticut, whereas Trump will end up with 43.4%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can include large biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 55.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Connecticut. Relative to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Connecticut, which is 2.0 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 3.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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