The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump in Colorado.
Colorado is traditionally a swing state, where the two major political parties have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is regarded crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models may contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Looking at an average of Colorado econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.0%. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.7 percentage points worse.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.4% in Colorado. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.9 percentage points higher.