FOX NewsFOX News published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Colorado were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Colorado is traditionally a purple state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have often won similar levels of voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is regarded important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
FOX NewsFOX News poll results
Of those who responded, 44.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 34.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 9 to July 12. A total of 600 registered voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they often contain large biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 56.4% for Clinton and 43.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 55.9% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Colorado. Relative to her numbers in the FOX NewsFOX News poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Colorado. Hence, the PollyVote is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is insignificant.