Results of a new poll conducted by GravisGravis were published. The poll asked participants from Colorado for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Historically, Colorado has been a battleground state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular value.
GravisGravis poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of participants plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 7 to July 8 with 1313 adults. The error margin is +/-2.7 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the candidates of both parties do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump. In the most recent GravisGravis poll on August 7 Clinton received only 48.8%, while Trump received only 0.0%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Colorado. Hence, the PollyVote is 2.2 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.