NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Colorado were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Historically, Colorado has been a purple state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular interest.
NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from July 5 to July 11, among a random sample of 794 registered voters. The error margin is +/-3.5 points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Colorado polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 55.9%. This value is 0.8 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the NBC/WSJ/MaristNBC/WSJ poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Colorado. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.