Results of a new poll conducted by Harper (R)Harper (R) were released. The poll asked participants from Colorado for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
In Colorado, the popular vote is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Harper (R)Harper (R) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 7 to July 9 among 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they often include large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 54.2% for Clinton and 45.8% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Colorado sees Clinton at 55.9% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.7 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Harper (R)Harper (R) poll. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.4% of the two-party vote in Colorado. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.