Clinton leads in Pennsylvania by 9 points in new Suffolk UniversitySuffolk poll
By Results of a new poll administered by Suffolk UniversitySuffolk were released. The poll asked respondents from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Suffolk UniversitySuffolk poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of respondents said that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% said that they would cast a ballot for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 25 to July 27. A total of 500 likely voters responded. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 55.0% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 54.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Suffolk UniversitySuffolk poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the PollyVote is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.
