EmersonEmerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
EmersonEmerson poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of participants plan to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between April 10 and April 11. The sample size was 1043 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-3.0 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they can contain large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump. On August 7 Clinton obtained only 45.5% in the EmersonEmerson poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 54.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Connecticut. This value is 0.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the EmersonEmerson poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. The results are consistent with the combined forecast from PollyVote for the two-party vote share in Connecticut. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.