Results of a new poll carried out by CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov were released. The poll asked respondents from Ohio for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
In Ohio, the election outcome is usually close. This is why the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov poll results
Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from July 13 to July 15 among 1104 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump. For comparison: Only 47.6% was gained by Clinton in the CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov poll on August 7, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is negligible.