Ohio: Clinton with negligible lead in latest CBS News/YouGov*CBS News/YouGov* poll

Results of a new poll carried out by CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov were released. The poll asked respondents from Ohio for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

In Ohio, the election outcome is usually close. This is why the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from July 13 to July 15 among 1104 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they can incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump. For comparison: Only 47.6% was gained by Clinton in the CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov poll on August 7, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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