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Broad consensus among component methods about election outcome

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In the latest update, the combined PollyVote concludes that Clinton will obtain 52.7% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.3% for Trump. There is broad consensus among the four available components: Three predict a victory for Clinton and one speculates that Trump will win.

According to the aggregated polls Trump is currently in the lead by 90.3%.

Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 9.7% the aggregated polls deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

In comparison to the predictions for previous elections the vote share for the Democrats is especially low with 51.7% in expectation polls. Since 2004 George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency they had not gained so few votes at this time during the course of the election. At that time, expectation polls expected a vote share of 50.5% for Democratic candidate John Kerry, in the end he reached 48.8%.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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