Bio-index model shows Clinton in the lead

The Bio-index model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump. In comparison, on August 3 Trump was still predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, since they can contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single index models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results vs. other index models

When compared to the average results of other index models Clinton performed better with 5.2 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 5.2 percentage points.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

Clinton has 6.3 percentage points more and Trump has 6.3 percentage points less when the results of the index model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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