DeSart model: Clinton in Arkansas trails by a very clear margin

The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 34.8% for Clinton and 65.2% for Trump in Arkansas. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to achieve 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models may contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Arkansas econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 58.6%. This value is 6.6 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.0% of the two-party vote in Arkansas, which is 8.2 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 17.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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