Results of a new poll carried out by CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov were announced. The poll asked interviewees from Arizona for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 42.0% of respondents are going to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 2 to August 5 with 1095 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.8 points, which means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they often include substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, we recommend to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 48.8% for Clinton and 51.2% for Trump. On August 7 Clinton obtained 51.2% in the CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov poll and Trump obtained only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Arizona polls, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 50.2%. This value is 1.0 percentage point lower than his corresponding numbers in the CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Arizona. This means that Polly's prediction is 2.9 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is negligible.