CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov poll results
This poll was conducted from August 2 to August 5, among a random sample of 1095 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed better with 50.2 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 50.2 percentage points. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.1% and Trump % of the two-party vote in Arizona.