Arizona: 5 points lead for Clinton in new OH Predictive InsightsPredictive Insights poll

OH Predictive InsightsPredictive Insights published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

The results show that 47.0% of respondents intend to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% intend to give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from June 20 to June 20 with 1060 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 52.8% for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 46.0% of the two-party vote in Arizona. That is, Polly's forecast is 6.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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