OH Predictive InsightsPredictive Insights published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
OH Predictive InsightsPredictive Insights poll results
The results show that 47.0% of respondents intend to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% intend to give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from June 20 to June 20 with 1060 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 52.8% for Clinton and 47.2% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 46.0% of the two-party vote in Arizona. That is, Polly's forecast is 6.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.