PPP (D)PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D)PPP (D) poll results
Of those who responded, 40.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from June 22 to June 23 among 691 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they may include large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 47.6% for Clinton and 52.4% for Trump. For comparison: 52.4% was gained by Clinton in the PPP (D)PPP (D) poll on August 7, for Trump this number was only 0.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Arizona sees Trump at 50.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.2 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the PPP (D)PPP (D) poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Arizona. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.7 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.