PPP (D)PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
PPP (D)PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 40.0% of interviewees said that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from June 22 to June 23 with 691 registered voters. If one accounts for the poll's margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 47.6% for Clinton and 52.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Arizona has Trump at 50.2% of the two-party vote. Relative to his numbers in the PPP (D)PPP (D) poll Trump's poll average is 2.2 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Arizona. That is, Polly's prediction is 1.7 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.