DeSart model in Arizona: Trump with clear lead

The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will obtain 42.7% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will end up with 57.3%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was predicted to win 0.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they can contain large errors. At least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Arizona has Trump at 57.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 0.1 percentage points lower.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 3.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 54.1% in Arizona. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 10.0 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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