CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov poll results
Of those who answered the question, 42.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 2 to August 5. A total of 1095 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 48.8% for Clinton and 51.2% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Arizona has Trump at 50.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.0 percentage point lower than his corresponding numbers in the CBS News/YouGovCBS News/YouGov poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Arizona. Hence, Polly's forecast is 2.9 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.