OH Predictive InsightsPredictive Insights released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
OH Predictive InsightsPredictive Insights poll results
The poll was conducted between June 20 and June 20. The sample size was 1060 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.0 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Clinton and Trump do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they often incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 47.2% for Clinton and 0.0% for Trump. For comparison: 52.8% was obtained by Clinton in the OH Predictive InsightsPredictive Insights poll on June 27, for Trump this result was 47.2%.
Results in comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 50.2 percentage points, while Trump did better with 50.2 percentage points. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.1% and Trump % of the two-party vote in Arizona.