As of today, Polly predicts that Clinton will achieve 52.8% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.2% for Trump. The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.
Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 55.7% the aggregated polls deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.
With 54.0% in prediction markets the vote share for the Democrats is noticeably high when compared to previous election years. This is the highest value at that time in the campaign since 1996. At that time, prediction markets expected a vote share of 54.8% for Democratic candidate.