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Consensus among component methods about election outcome


As of today, Polly predicts that Clinton will achieve 52.8% of the national two-party vote. This leaves 47.2% for Trump. The component methods have all come to the same conclusion. All prediction models expect Clinton to win.

Expert surveys predict a vote share of 52.7% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 55.7% the aggregated polls deviate the most from the PollyVote forecast.

With 54.0% in prediction markets the vote share for the Democrats is noticeably high when compared to previous election years. This is the highest value at that time in the campaign since 1996. At that time, prediction markets expected a vote share of 54.8% for Democratic candidate.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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