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538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton with small lead


The 538 (polls-plus) model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model predicts that Clinton will garner 52.3% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.8%. In comparison, on August 7 Trump was still predicted to gain 47.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models may contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

When compared to the average results of other econometric models Clinton performed better with 3.4 percentage points, while Trump did worse with 3.4 percentage points.

The 538 (polls-plus) model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

Clinton has 0.5 percentage points less and Trump has 0.5 percentage points more when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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