Washington: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will receive 52.8% of the two-party vote share in Washington, whereas Trump will end up with 47.2%.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models often contain large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, you should use combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently achieves 54.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Washington. Compared to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.3 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 55.1% in Washington. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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