On August 1, Suffolk University released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Suffolk University poll results
Of those who answered the question, 50.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 25 to July 27 with 500 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.4 points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 55.0% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 52.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Suffolk University poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. That is, Polly's forecast is 2.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is negligible.