The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 43.0% of the two-party vote share in South Dakota, while Trump will end up with 57.0%.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they may include large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 59.6% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in South Dakota. This value is 2.6 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 59.3% in South Dakota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 9.0 percentage points higher.