On August 1, PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from South Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
The results show that 42.0% of interviewees said that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from November 7 to November 8 with 1290 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-2.7 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, because they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 47.2% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Trump can currently count on 55.0% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in South Carolina. This value is 2.2 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the PPP (D) poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 55.4% of the two-party vote in South Carolina. That is, the PollyVote is 2.6 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.