Pennsylvania: Tossup between Clinton and Trump in new Gravis poll
On August 1, Gravis released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Gravis poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of participants said that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 48.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from June 27 to June 28 among 1958 registered voters. The sampling error is +/-2.2 points, which means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not put too much trust in the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 51.0% for Clinton and 49.0% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 52.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Pennsylvania. Compared to her numbers in the Gravis poll Clinton's poll average is 1.5 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. This means that Polly's forecast is 1.6 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.