Ohio: Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in latest Jerome model

The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 51.3% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will win 48.7%.

Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, as they may contain substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Ohio has Clinton at 50.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.1 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.7% in Ohio. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.7 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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