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Ohio: Dead heat between Clinton and Trump in new DeSart model


The DeSart model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 49.1% for Clinton and 50.9% for Trump in Ohio.

Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Hence, predictions here are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models should be treated with caution, because they may include large biases. At the very least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

Trump currently achieves 49.8% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Ohio. This value is 1.1 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio, which is 1.6 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 2.9 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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