Results of a new poll conducted by Quinnipiac were released. The poll asked interviewees from Ohio for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In Ohio, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly viewed as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Quinnipiac poll results
According to the results, the two candidates can draw on the same level of support, each with 41.0% of the vote.
This poll was conducted from June 30 to July 11, among a random sample of 955 registered voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain large biases, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
In comparison to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 0.5 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.5 percentage points. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.7% and Trump 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 0.7 percentage points less and Trump has 0.7 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's error margin indicates that this deviation is significant.