PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Ohio has been a battleground state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is why forecasts in this state are of particular importance.
PPP (D) poll results
The results show that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and billionaire Donald Trump can draw on equal levels of support, each with 45.0% of the vote.
The poll was carried out from July 22 to July 24 with 1334 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often contain large errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share.
Comparison to other polls
When compared to the average results of other polls Clinton performed worse with 0.5 percentage points, while Trump did better with 0.5 percentage points. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.7% and Trump 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 0.7 percentage points less and Trump has 0.7 percentage points more when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is significant.