New York: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 62.4% for Clinton and 37.6% for Trump in New York.

Putting the results in context

Single econometric models can contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of New York econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 60.7%. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 1.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 60.6% in New York. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 10.4 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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