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New NBC-WSJ-Marist poll in Pennsylvania: Clinton with clear lead

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On August 1, NBC-WSJ-Marist released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Pennsylvania were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.

NBC-WSJ-Marist poll results
45

Clinton

36

Trump

According to the results, 45.0% of interviewees said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 36.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from July 5 to July 10. A total of 829 registered voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls can incorporate large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 55.6% for Clinton and 44.4% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of Pennsylvania polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.5%. In comparison to her numbers in the NBC-WSJ-Marist poll Clinton's poll average is 3.1 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the PollyVote is 3.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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