The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 52.2% of the two-party vote share in New Mexico, whereas Trump will end up with 47.8%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, we recommend to look at combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models in New Mexico sees Clinton at 52.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Jerome model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in New Mexico, which is 1.1 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.2 percentage points higher.