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New Hampshire: Tossup between Trump and Clinton in new DeSart model


The DeSart model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton and 49.6% for Trump in New Hampshire.

In New Hampshire, the popular vote is usually close. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of New Hampshire econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.2%. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 51.7% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire, which is 1.3 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.6 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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