New DeSart model in Wisconsin: Trump and Clinton in a dead heat

The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump in Wisconsin.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of Wisconsin econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.2%. This value is 2.0 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the DeSart model.

The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.2% in Wisconsin. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 0.8 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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