Nevada: Clinton and Trump virtually tied in latest Jerome model

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 51.5% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will end up with 48.5%.

In Nevada, the election outcome is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, as they may contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 51.3% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Nevada. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.2 percentage points worse.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 50.6% of the two-party vote in Nevada, which is 0.9 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.5 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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