The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 45.3% for Clinton and 54.7% for Trump in Montana.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 57.3% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Montana. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 2.6 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Montana, which is 2.4 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 6.7 percentage points higher.