Montana: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model's forecast is that Clinton will achieve 40.2% of the two-party vote share in Montana, whereas Trump will end up with 59.8%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models can incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Trump can currently count on 57.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Montana. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Montana, which is 2.7 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 11.8 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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