Minnesota: Tossup between Clinton and Trump in new DeSart model

The DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will receive 51.6% of the two-party vote share in Minnesota, while Trump will end up with 48.4%.

Putting the results in context

Individual econometric models should be regarded with caution, since they often incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single econometric models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Results compared to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models in Minnesota has Clinton at 55.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.5 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote in Minnesota, which is 2.2 percentage points above the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 0.4 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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