The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model expects that Clinton will obtain 58.5% of the two-party vote share in Minnesota, while Trump will end up with 41.5%.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate large biases. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently achieves 55.1% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Minnesota. This value is 3.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Jerome model.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 4.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.8% in Minnesota. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 6.5 percentage points higher.