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Louisiana: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

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The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 46.7% for Clinton and 53.3% for Trump in Louisiana.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Louisiana econometric models, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 57.5%. This value is 4.2 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Jerome model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 4.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 57.7% in Louisiana. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump shows that the actual results are 5.3 percentage points higher.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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