Latest Jerome model in Florida: Clinton and Trump virtually tied
The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model expects that Clinton will achieve 51.0% of the two-party vote share in Florida, while Trump will win 49.0%.
Historically, Florida has been a swing state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions here are of particular importance.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, since they often include large biases. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Results in comparison to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 49.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Florida. Relative to her numbers in the Jerome model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.5 percentage points worse.
The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 49.7% of the two-party vote in Florida, which is 1.3 percentage points below the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton shows that the actual results are 1.0 percentage point lower.