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Latest DeSart model in Pennsylvania: Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck


The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to this model, Clinton will achieve 50.3% of the two-party vote share in Pennsylvania, whereas Trump will end up with 49.7%.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single econometric models, because they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of Pennsylvania econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.9%. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.6 percentage points higher.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 52.6% in Pennsylvania. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.7 percentage points lower.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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