Latest DeSart model in Nevada: Clinton and Trump virtually tied
The DeSart model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to this model, Clinton will collect 51.0% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, while Trump will win 49.0%.
Nevada is traditionally a purple state, where the candidates of both major parties have historically won similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is viewed as critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single econometric models, the best practice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 51.2% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Nevada. In comparison to her numbers in the DeSart model Clinton's econometric model average is 0.2 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 50.6% in Nevada. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.0 percentage point lower.