Latest DeSart model in Colorado: Trump and Clinton in a dead heat
The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton and 49.7% for Trump in Colorado.
In Colorado, the popular vote is often close. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Single econometric models can incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single econometric models, the best practice is to rely on combined econometric models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 52.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models in Colorado. This value is 1.7 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the DeSart model.
The DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The results of the DeSart model for Clinton are thus 2.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote, which at the moment predicts a value of 53.1% in Colorado. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Clinton indicates that the actual results are 1.6 percentage points lower.