Results of a new poll conducted by CBS News/YouGov were spread on August 1. The poll asked interviewees from Ohio for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where Republicans and Democrats have often gained similar levels of voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is viewed as important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
CBS News/YouGov poll results
According to the results, 44.0% of participants indicated to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from July 13 to July 15 among 1104 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual poll. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 52.4% for Clinton and 47.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Ohio has Clinton at 50.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the CBS News/YouGov poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.7% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, the PollyVote is 1.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.