Atlanta Journal published the results of a new poll on August 1. In this poll, participants from Georgia were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Atlanta Journal poll results
Of those who responded, 41.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from May 9 to May 12, among a random sample of 822 registered voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Trump currently achieves 52.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Georgia. This value is 0.2 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Atlanta Journal poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Georgia. This means that Polly's prediction is 1.0 point above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.