The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.2% for Trump in Kansas.
Putting the results in context
Individual econometric models should be treated with caution, because they can include substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump currently runs at 60.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Kansas. In comparison to his numbers in the Jerome model Trump's econometric model average is 3.9 percentage points higher.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.8% of the two-party vote in Kansas, which is 1.6 percentage points above the results of the Jerome model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 8.2 percentage points higher.