The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election result. The model expects that Clinton will garner 36.0% of the two-party vote share in Kansas, while Trump will win 64.0%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, econometric models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a econometric model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Trump can currently count on 60.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models in Kansas. Compared to his numbers in the DeSart model Trump's econometric model average is 3.9 percentage points worse.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 57.8% of the two-party vote in Kansas, which is 6.2 percentage points below the results of the DeSart model. In comparison, a look at the PollyVote national prediction for Trump indicates that the actual results are 16.0 percentage points higher.